The Natural Effect of Trade -An Enquiry into the Relationship between Trade and Conflict Patterns in China from a Liberal Perspective

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the effect that international trade, or trade dependency, had on China’s propensity to achieve peaceful international relations in the period between 1970 and 2005. The hypothesis put forward is that there will be a negative correlation between China’s international trade pattern, or trade dependency, and the state’s aggressive international relations towards other states. For easy assessment three research themes are formed; trade, conflict and peace, each considered separately. Evaluation of the research themes is done by means of simple regression and statistical analysis. In order to support the hypothesis, a negative and significant correlation between the two variables has to be found. The conclusion of the study is that no negative correlation between the variables can be established, proving the hypothesis wrong. Furthermore no significant correlation, negative or positive, is found. However, there are indications in the data that there might be something to the liberal peace theories that form the basis of this study and further study is encouraged and recommendations for alterations are given.