Recurrent neural networks for time-series prediction.

Abstract: Recurrent neural networks have been used for time-series prediction with good results. In this dissertation recurrent neural networks are compared with time-delayed feed forward networks, feed forward networks and linear regression models on a prediction task. The data used in all experiments is real-world sales data containing two kinds of segments: campaign segments and non-campaign segments. The task is to make predictions of sales under campaigns. It is evaluated if more accurate predictions can be made when only using the campaign segments of the data. Throughout the entire project a knowledge discovery process, identified in the literature has been used to give a structured work-process. The results show that the recurrent network is not better than the other evaluated algorithms, in fact, the time-delayed feed forward neural network showed to give the best predictions. The results also show that more accurate predictions could be made when only using information from campaign segments.