Post-war fertility change in Finland 1950-2018: Understanding the post-2010 fertility decline in the long-term context of post-war fertility change

Abstract: Finland has had a steep decline in fertility since 2010, which has yet to show any signs of slowing down. This is highly problematic for a country like Finland which has had well below replacement level fertility over the past five decades. This study analysed previous studies and theories related to fertility, primarily in the Finnish and Nordic contexts. Moreover the author performed his own econometric analysis on the main indicators influencing differences in Total Fertility Rates (TFR’s) between regions in Finland during the years 1990-2018. The study found a number of drivers behind the recent decline in fertility including; fewer marriages, more divorces, economic recession and hardship, high long-term unemployment, a growing share of tertiary educated women, an increasing gap in education between women and men, the social norm of economic independence before parenthood, and young women perceiving childbearing as non-essential for feeling fulfilled. While these drivers together are likely to explain most of the recent decline in fertility in Finland; the author suspects that there may be other factors related to the physical and mental well-being of young Finns that are not yet well-measured or well-understood.