Analysis of the Impact of Population Share of Young Adults on the Healthy Beverage Market in High-income Countries

Abstract: In order to improve companies' and public health organizations' abilities to forecast the future beverage market volumes, it is crucial to identify the determinants of beverage consumption. Based on the market volume panel data from 2005 to 2020, this thesis formulates a fixed-effect model to examine the causal relationship between the population share of young adults and the market volumes of healthy beverages compared to unhealthy beverages in high-income countries. Furthermore, we conduct heterogeneity analyses of this relationship at the country and product levels. The results show that 1) the population share of young adults has a significant positive impact on the market volume of healthy beverages relative to unhealthy beverages in high-income countries; 2) in middle- and low-income countries, the population share of young adults has no significant impact on healthy beverages' market volumes; 3) among three product groups of cream, juice, and milk, the population share of young adults only positively impacts the market volume of healthy milk products. The findings suggest that beverage companies should make good use of the information of the young adult population to improve forecasts on future beverage consumption. At the same time, public health organizations need to improve young adults' nutrition knowledge, which plays an active role in their healthy beverage consumption behaviors and helps better prevent diseases such as obesity and diabetes.