Defending Christ and the Fatherland: A panel data analysis of the impact immigration has on the electoral outcomes of Polish far-right parties from 2001 to 2020

Abstract: Voting for far-right parties in Europe is linked to many reasons, among them an increased presence of migrants. Using panel data from 372 Polish counties over the years 2001-2020, I run two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences and Bartik instrument models to test whether the share of migrants in a county has an effect on the share of votes far-right parties receive in different elections - presidential, parliamentary, local, and European. I estimate the effect of the migrant inflow and the effect of the cumulative migrant presence separately. I aim to explain the electoral performance of the ruling Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc party as well as the cumulative far-right performance. I do not find that either migrant inflow or migrant presence treatment has significant effects on the electoral performance of Polish far-right parties in various elections. At most, there is a negative effect of the migrant inflow on the outcomes of Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc in the first round of presidential elections, but its magnitude and statistical significance differ between specifications.