The Unpredictability of Conflict - A reconceptualisation of political instability and its potential for forecasting conflict

Abstract: This thesis is dedicated to developing a concept that allows for predicting the magnitude of political instability periods. To that end existing literature is consulted to explore the most appropriate definitions and explanatory models for creating a elaborated approach to political instability. On the basis of this refined concept, that defines political instability as a latent condition rather than an occurrence, hypotheses are devised. These hypotheses are tested by employing a exploratory correlation analysis on a limited sample, which yields results that encourage confidence in the predictive potential of the developed concept. As suggested in the explanatory framework the analysis finds that the magnitude of conflict, resulting from political instability, is positively correlated with social fragmentation and individual deprivation, while being negatively correlated to military professionalism. A fourth explanatory component - viable alternatives to conflict - was not found to have any effect.