PROFITABILITY MODELLING FOR CREDIT MARKET COMPANY : MODELLING AND EVALUATION OF PROFITABILITY AND CREDIT RISK FOR LARGE CONTRACTS

Abstract: Risk and profitability are two topics that companies today have to face and deal with. There are different type of risks that either directly or indirectly affect the survival of a company.After the financial crisis in 2008, new regulations and capital requirements was establishedto better cope with future crisis, as the survival of banks and credit market companies hasa vital impact on society. The objective of this thesis has been to create a model that estimates profitability withrespect to various risks but above all credit risk. Risks that credit market companies has tocomply with has been provided by PayEx via documents or meetings. Further knowledgewithin the area of risks has been acquired by reading capital requirements and regulations.The main focus on capital requirements and regulations landed in Basel III and InternalCapital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP). To initiate the project an excel document was provided electronically which laid groundfor the model that was later built in the programming language Python. The first stepin building the model was to replicate all calculations so the model gave the same outputas in the excel document. Further, functions were made to be used in a simulation to seewhich parameters affected the risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) the most. When allsimulations were made a visualization of the results in form of plots was created to simplifythe understanding of the results. Important dynamic parameters used in the model was the end customers choice of paymentmethod, payment methods including a fee and percentage change in contract payment. Allmentioned parameters made impact on how profitable a business case were. Conclusions from the results are that payment methods, percentage change in contractpayment and payment methods including fees all affect the profit or RAROC. A recommendationis that PayEx should try to steer customers to pay according to Set 2 or Set 7,negotiate the percentage change in contract payment or add a fee to payment method 4 ifcustomers choose to pay that way. Further explanations of the mentioned Sets can be foundin Section 4.1.2.