A review of energy modelling tools

Abstract: This master’s thesis is the outcome of a six-month internship at TOTAL in the Gas, Renewables, Power market analysis department. In a process to revise the long-term energy model used by the company which covers numerous countries and sectors, the objective was to develop the foundation of an energy demand model with a parallel focus to better represent the variations of power demand.  A literature review is first carried out on different approaches for energy demand models and on the load duration curve which enables to aggregate power demand variations. The outcome of this review is that it is common to use a top-down econometric strategy for the energy demand and that there are various methods to model the load duration curve. An econometric demand model is then developed using a simple econometric approach with demand elasticities to end-user prices and to activity variables that are representative of a sector’s socio-economic activity. With such an approach, the model can correctly draw a country’s energy demand using relatively small datasets and offering the possibility to create scenarios and sensitivities. In addition, two load duration curve models are further investigated, one model using typical periods of the year and a second one using a normal distribution law. The latter option appears to be the most convenient as it requires only an annual power demand and a standard deviation value to reasonably well represent the load curve. As a case study, the dynamic-systems modelling software VENSIM is introduced with its relevant features that can enhance the development of the code and analysis practices.