Evaluating the Impact of Chinese and World Bank Foreign Aid Projects on Preferences for Democracy in Tanzania

Abstract: Recognizing that democracy is important for the efficient use of foreign aid, this paper examines whether the presence of foreign aid projects impact the democratic preferences for local residents in Tanzania. Considering China's increased presence as an international donor, we compare the democratic preferences for Tanzanians surrounding Chinese and World Bank aid projects. We match a geo-referenced data set with the subnational allocation of Chinese and World Bank development projects over the years 2000-2014 to 2,636 respondents from four Afrobarometer survey waves carried out in Tanzania. We thereby employ a spatial-temporal strategy which allows us to examine to what extent development projects impact the democratic preferences for local Tanzanians surrounding project sites. We find no causal relationship between development projects and democratic preferences. Some results, however, imply that Tanzanians surrounding Chinese aid projects are associated with lower levels of democratic preferences compared to Tanzanians who reside near World Bank project sites.