Sustaining the Salish Sea in uncertainty : a case study of sustainable transboundary water governance

Abstract: Water is essential to life. In many communities, social, cultural, and economic practices are closely linked to hydrologic flows and the ecosystems that depend on them, creating complex socio-ecological systems. With the increasing pressures of climate change and urbanization, particularly in coastal areas, sustainable socio-ecological systems governance is imperative. However, many wetland ecosystems cross political and social boundaries, creating challenges for governing fluid resources. Resilience and sustainability scholars have identified new processes for adaptive and anticipatory governance that focus on polycentricity, participation, indigenous knowledge, social learning, and foresight to manage natural resources in uncertain conditions. These frameworks can help inform adaptable and future-focused decision-making without reducing the complexity of dynamic transboundary systems. This thesis explores the case of the Salish Sea, one such transboundary socio-ecological system under threat, where shared waters and resources are governed by the United States, Canada, First Nations, and tribes. There are many collaborations and environmental policies in the region that have improved water quality over time, but economically and culturally significant species are still in decline. Through document review and key informant interviews, the current structure and processes of transboundary governance are analyzed to understand the extent of adaptive and anticipatory capacity in the face of future uncertainty. The findings indicate that there is both top-down and bottom-up collaboration on socio-ecological system governance in the region and several mechanisms through which participation, learning processes, and diversity of knowledge are included in decision-making. However, anticipating future crises and building adaptive capacity is still quite limited. Some potential barriers include a lack of symmetry in governance structure across political borders, recognition of and infringement on indigenous treaty rights, and capacity for implementing change and increasing participation. Several opportunities to increase knowledge-sharing, collaboration, and self-determination that may improve adaptiveness and anticipation towards long-term sustainability are identified.