Modeling of non-maturing deposits

University essay from KTH/Matematisk statistik; KTH/Matematisk statistik

Abstract: The interest in modeling non-maturing deposits has skyrocketed ever since thefinancial crisis 2008. Not only from a regulatory and legislative perspective,but also from an investment and funding perspective.Modeling of non-maturing deposits is a very broad subject. In this thesis someof the topics within the subject are investigated, where the greatest focus inon the modeling of the deposit volumes. The main objective is to providethe bank with an analysis of the majority of the topics that needs to be cov-ered when modeling non-maturing deposits. This includes short-rate model-ing using Vasicek’s model, deposit rate modeling using a regression approachand a method proposed by Jarrow and Van Deventer, volume modeling usingSARIMA, SARIMAX and a general additive model, a static replicating port-folio based on Maes and Timmerman’s to model the behaviour of the depositaccounts and finally a liquidity risk model that was suggested by Kalkbrenerand Willing. All of these models have been applied on three different accounttypes: private transaction accounts, savings accounts and corporate savingsaccounts.The results are that, due to the current market, the static replicating portfoliodoes not achieve the desired results. Furthermore, the best volume model forthe data provided is a SARIMA model, meaning the effect of the exogenousvariables are seemingly already embedded in the lagged volume. Finally, theliquidity risk results are plausible and thus deemed satisfactory.

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