Drones – a tool of escalation or de-escalation in conflicts?

Abstract: The use of drones in conflicts is under development and is increasing rapidly. The first real drone warfare was seen in Pakistan in the War on Terrorism in 2004. Between officials and scientists, there are divided opinions about whether the drone strikes can increase terrorism or cause the collapse of organizations. The purpose of this thesis is to examine how the effectiveness of drones, in terms of precision and lethality, can be seen to escalate or de-escalate a conflict. The aim is to explore whether two existing theories about air power can explain the case of killing the Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, in 2020. As a qualitative case study, the approach results in favor of Pape´s theory over Warden´s. Pape says that decapitation is more likely to escalate a conflict, which confirms this case. Other explanations in his theory are the absence of unexpected political effects and the overthrow of government. Though Wardens theory shows some aspects of de-escalation, the conclusion is that Soleimani was not the center of gravity that was meant to cause system collapse. Further research is required since the findings cannot identify any escalating or de-escalating effects within the Quds Force.