Transformation of the Aviation industry : Exploring alternative renewal fuel pathways

Abstract: This master thesis will be part of a larger project called Sustainable Energy Transition in Aviation (SETA), which will be done in collaboration with the Division of Sustainability, Industrial Dynamics and Entrepreneurship (SIDE) at INDEK. The overall thesis aims to contribute to accelerate the energy transition within the aviation sector, with a focus on three technologies: bio-based jet fuels, hydrogen fuels and electrical aircraft. Moving on, this research project is being pursued because aviation is one of the most important CO2 emitters in Sweden. Indeed it accounts for 5% of total Swedish emissions (Klimatpolitiska Rådet, 2020). Due to its complexity as a socio technical system and its tight interrelations between its components, aviation is struggling to change. Therefore, a transformative pressure is raising in order to meet 2030 and 2045 targets. The aim of the research is to highlight how the introduction of alternative fuels and technologies might help aviation to reach carbon neutrality. Moreover, the aviation industry could be classified as a socio-technical system, thereby a conceptual framework was used to better analyze its transition. The Multi-Level Perspective framework (MLP) was thus applied with the intent of describing how the sustainable energy transformation will happen at the different levels. Through interviews it was possible to underline the different challenges within the aviation system, while also highlighting future scenarios of the air transport sector. Furthermore, by developing a modelling analysis through the LEAP software, it was possible to hypothesized several scenarios where biofuels, hydrogen and electric airplanes growth varies under specific assumptions. Finally, the analysis highlighted that the introduction of these alternative technologies will be crucial to support aviation in its green transformation. Indeed, between year 2015 and 2045, the total emissions from the analyzed transport sector were reduced by 90%. Therefore, aviation will essentially need these new technologies in order to transform and become greener.