Pressuring Rebels : A Quantitative Study on Sanctions’ Effects on Violence Against Civilians

Abstract: Violence against civilians is a tragic but common consequence of civil war. This phenomenon has accordingly been a well-publicized subject of research during the last decade, and it is now conventional knowledge that armed actors abuse civilians to varied extents in different strategic settings. The United Nations has condemned this type of violence and commanded that tools able to deter actors from targeting civilians should be utilized. One of these tools are sanctions, and this thesis explores how this non-violent type of intervention may affect rebel groups’ use of violence against civilians. Based on theories of conflict dynamics and strategic choice, the proposed hypothesis expects an increase of violence against non-combatants as sanctions are imposed on rebel groups. Using yearly data on rebel groups active between 1992 and 2014 in a quantitative analysis, the results support the hypothesis. This has important implications not only for the field of peace and conflict studies but also for policymakers seeking to decrease civilian suffering in armed conflict.