Inundation scenarios in a changing climate : assessing potential impacts of sea-level rise on the coast of South-East England

Abstract: The aim of this study was to explore sea-level rise (SLR) exposure in South-East England by conducting a broad analysis of some of the possible impacts of inundation in the region under different SLR scenarios in a warming climate. The potential effects of coastal inundation were mapped and quantified by applying a modified bathtub modelling approach in GIS to a low-elevation coastal Digital Terrain Model (DTM) derived from up-to-date, high-resolution, high-accuracy LiDAR data. Mapping of areas susceptible to inundation was referenced to the Mean High Water (MHW) tide line, with all land situated below each water level assessed, and connected to the sea, being counted as submerged. The inundation modelling was performed for three projected scenarios, with SLR magnitudes of 1m, 3m and 5m. Based on these models, future SLR inundation was estimated to have varied possible consequences on the land, transport infrastructure, built-up, agricultural land, woodland, protected areas, landmarks and population, in the absence of adaptation. As first estimates of some of the possible consequences of SLR-induced inundation in the region, the findings should be taken as reasonable guesses and as first steps towards future investigations. SLR is a long-term threat which will continue through the 21st century and beyond, therefore a timely and ongoing adaptation response from policy-makers is vital for building resilient and sustainable coastal communities.