Hidden behind the pandemic: A study on the effects of the COVID-19 restrictions on dissent

Abstract: This thesis aims to address how COVID-19 restrictions affected dissent events in autocracies and electoral autocracies. To do so relies on the combination of the grievances and resource mobilization theories. During the COVID-19 pandemic, autocracies and electoral autocracies have implanted restrictive civil liberties policies justified by the necessity to reduce the spread of the virus and the challenging situation. These policies have affected people’s lives and dissent events. The study found a negative relationship between the COVID-19 restrictions and dissent in 2020 compared to 2021. To test this relationship, I used the V-dem v11.1 dataset. Since I wanted to get a bigger picture of the relationship, I used the results of the LNA to select a typical case among countries in Southeast-East Asia. I relied on the Philippines case to test the causal mechanism theorized and tested whether the negative relationship was in place. The results showed that the number of protests in the Philippines decreased in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019. Using the ACLED dataset, I found that grievances and ICT mobilization were present without leading to an increase in dissent events. Additionally, while ACLED accounted for a digital form of protest, V-dem v11.1 did not. This result leads me to conclude that the results from the LNA might be subjected to a measurement error. Further research is thus required to address the relationship better.