The Uses of Real Estate Market Analysesfrom a Municipal Perspective: A Case studyof the development area Norra Arnö in themunicipality of Nyköping

Abstract: An increasing population is a given pursuit for many municipalities in Sweden. The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate a method that may help increase the municipalities awareness of what possible newcomers are looking for in residential development areas, what their preferences are, and what it is that affects their decision to live in a certain area and house. With this type of information, municipalities are introduced to the underlying factors that influence the customer’s (newcomer’s) decision-making processes. A better market awareness can increase municipality’s competitiveness as well as ensure a higher demand for housing. This thesis shows how a real estate market analysis of level D with a customer-based attitude survey is performed through a case study of the development area Norra Arnö in the municipality of Nyköping in Sweden. Norra Arnö is currently undeveloped, with the exception of a new retirement home. An attitude survey serves as a large part of the market analysis to analyse the customer experience of the housing development Norra Arnö. The survey was formulated through several dimensions that have an impact on the decision making process when moving to a new area. These dimensions include; appealing residential project, pleasant living environment, appealing residential houses, overall impression, an intention of moving to a similar project, communication, and value for money. Towards the end of the survey the respondents were asked whether they had an intention to buy an apartment in Norra Arnö, to which 21 out of 229 responded yes. The answers were then analysed through the methods Exploratory factor analysis and Structural equation modeling. These techniques enabled a comparison of the groups (e.g. families with children, ages, gender etc.) preferences in each dimension to find out what factors affect the decision making process for each group. The results of the survey found that young people (under 29 years) have a more positive overall impression of the project and demonstrate a greater intention to live in a residential area similar to Norra Arnö. Additionally it is the lower income groups (below 399 000 kr per year) and those who intend to move within five years, who also have an intention to live in a housing project similar to Norra Arnö. The age group 30-44, families with children, residents of Nyköping and people living in single-family houses were more positive to the dimension communications, which means they to a greater extent believe Nyköping is a good town to live in, where they can easily reach their friends, work and activities. Generally speaking, the dimension communications had greatest ii significance for the differences of answers exhibited in the survey, and can therefore have a major impact on the demand of the project. Out of 229 respondents, 21 people said they intended to buy an apartment in this new area, which unfortunately is a too small figure to be able to analyse the factors that have the greatest influence on the decision of saying yes to the project. The number of people resident in Oxelösund, the secondary market area, was 40, regrettably also a too low number of people to statistically estimate the size of the demand. However 10 % of respondents showed an intention to buy an apartment on Norra Arnö, and considering that the survey only took into account one secondary market area, it is assumed that demand exists for the apartment complex even though a specific number cannot be estimated.