The Potential of Electrification in reducing Emissions from Passenger Cars in Stockholm County by 2030 : A Modeling Study of the Potential of Plug-In Hybrids and All-Electric Cars in reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Air Pollution

Abstract: This study examines the potential of electrification in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution from passenger cars in a short- to mid-term time perspective. Using Stockholm County as a case study, this has been done in a three-step process by modeling the relative change in emissions between 2019 and 2030. Firstly, four scenarios have been created for 2030, each of which state the number of gasoline cars, diesel cars, PHEVs and EVs in use on a municipality-level. Secondly, for each scenario, the movement of traffic has been modeled on a car-by-car basis using the Scaper/MATSim transportation model at KTH. Thirdly, using emission factors from HBEFA, an emission model for 17 pollutants has been created for the modeling of hot emissions, cold start emissions, evaporation losses and non-exhaust emissions. Compared to 2019 emission levels, with EVs and PHEVs accounting for 64.5 % of the car fleet, the optimistic scenarios suggest that emissions of CO2, NMHC and NOx could decrease by up to 43.6, 63.5 and 84.7 %, respectively, by 2030. Besides electrification, for NMHC and NOx, these emission reductions are largely a result of technological improvements of combustion vehicles. Conversely, emissions of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) are projected to increase by up to 45.6 % in the optimistic scenarios. Roughly corresponding to the increase in the total driving distance, this increase can be attributed to the lower cost of driving of electric cars and the projected population increase of 15.5 %.