Accounting manipulation : analyzing corporate subsidy recipients during the covid-19 pandemic

Abstract: In response to the reported increase in accounting crime and suspected fraud in conjunction with the adjustment subsidies initialized during the covid-19 pandemic of 2020, we conducted a study examining accounting manipulation. Based on an explanatory theory for fraud, the Fraud Triangle, we theorize that the financial circumstances that companies experienced during the pandemic and the government subsidies created an environment where accounting manipulation could occur. We obtained a unique set of unpublished data from the Swedish Tax Agency. Two common models for detecting accounting manipulation were then applied to a large sample of Swedish companies. We used a version of the Jones Model to detect potential earnings management and Benford’s Law to detect fraudulent manipulation of the firms’ reported loss of revenue. Our results indicate earnings management and fraudulent reporting for some industries but no broad indication of systematic accounting manipulation across all industries. However, we suggest future research on this topic to further understand how accounting manipulation occurs in distressed industries.