A Trade-based Inference Algorithm for Counterfactual Performance Estimation

Abstract: A methodology for increasing the success rate in debt collection by matching individual call center agents with optimal debtors is developed. This methodology, called the trade algorithm, consists of the following steps. The trade algorithm first identifies groups of debtors for which agent performance varies. Based on these differences in performance, agents are put into clusters. An optimal call allocation for the clusters is then decided. Two methods to estimate the performance of an optimal call allocation are suggested. These methods are combined with Monte Carlo cross-validation and an alternative time-consistent validation procedure. Tests of significance are applied to the results and the effect size is estimated. The trade algorithm is applied to a dataset from the credit management services company Intrum and is shown to enhance performance.