Analysis of the situation of deforestation and road transport greenhouse emissions for the next decade in Colombia

Abstract: Colombia committed to reduce 20% of its emissions by 2030 in the framework of Paris Agreement. The study provides a systemic approach that considers the two main drivers of the emissions in the country to know how realistic is the mentioned intended National Determined Contribution (iNDC). It analyzes deforestation and road transport with a methodology that combines analyses of their current situation and their historical trends. The investigation uses previous research and official information of the government. Besides, it estimates the level of the emissions of 2030, by using historical data of forest area from the year 1900 for deforestation, and Diesel and Motor Gasoline energy consumption from the year 1975 for road transport. The main results are that according to 50 years and 100 years historical trends, deforestation emissions could be reduced ~10% and ~30% respectively of the expected level of 2030. In the case of road transport emissions, they could double in ~10 years when considering the period between 1975-2017 and 2000-2017 for Diesel and 2007-2017 for Motor Gasoline. In addition, the research works as a handbook to understand greenhouse emissions in Colombia.