Climate Adaptation Strategies and Projections on Water Discharge in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin

Abstract: The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the climate adaptation strategies regarding water resources in the regional context of the three major riparians of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers: Turkey, Syria and Iraq. The objectives are: to base the analysis on the criteria benefit, consequences and limits to the social as well as the technical factors affecting the water availability and to use WW-HYPE, which is a HBV based model, to support literature on climate projections in the area. Water discharge projections reveal that the peak in flow rate will change, in the years 2041-2070 in relation to reference values from 1971-2000, with on an average (of three locations in the basin) -18 % for a RCP4.5 emission scenario. The projected water discharge decrease is larger in the north of the basin which is also the location of the rivers headwaters in Turkey. The downstream riparians are less effected by the natural water discharge change, but will suffer the effects of being in a disadvantaged position downstream. Syria is the country of the three with the highest amount of water discharge per capita. The adaptations measures evaluated are virtual water, desalination, re-use of wastewater, improvements on infrastructure and irrigation, water pricing and implementation of a trilateral treaty. This thesis highlights the importance of diversication of measures and the involvement of communities for acceptance of policy. There is a need for supply-side measures as well as conservation techniques. Although collaboration over borders would be preferable in the basin, a possibility to implement a trilateral treaty is not expected in the near future.