Comparison of the 1st and 2nd order Lee–Carter methods with the robust Hyndman–Ullah method for fitting and forecasting mortality rates

University essay from Mälardalens högskola/Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation

Abstract: The 1st and 2nd order Lee–Carter methods were compared with the Hyndman–Ullah method in regards to goodness of fit and forecasting ability of mortality rates. Swedish population data was used from the Human Mortality Database. The robust estimation property of the Hyndman–Ullah method was also tested with inclusion of the Spanish flu and a hypothetical scenario of the COVID-19 pandemic. After having presented the three methods and making several comparisons between the methods, it is concluded that the Hyndman–Ullah method is overall superior among the three methods with the implementation of the chosen dataset. Its robust estimation of mortality shocks could also be confirmed.

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