Modelling the future hydrogen demand of the Netherlands : Assessing the feasibility of meeting the demand through offshore wind hydrogen production

Abstract: To enable the use of renewable energy throughout the system, the Dutch government aims to rely strongly on hydrogen gas as a green energy carrier. This thesis is dedicated to assessing the feasibility of meeting the future Dutch hydrogen demand with locally produced green hydrogen through offshore wind. The aim was realized by modelling the Dutch hydrogen demand in 2050 based on government plans and comparing this with the amount of green hydrogen the Netherlands can produce through offshore wind. Methods used include extensive literature reviews, energy system modelling, scenario analysis, and calculations. The results show that between 1,28 and 2,04 EJ of wind energy is necessary to meet the regular electricity demand and the electricity demand for hydrogen production through electrolysis. This needs to be compared to an offshore wind energy potential in the Dutch North Sea that ranges between 0,67 and 1,79 EJ. An analysis of the results shows that the offshore wind demand could be met, but it is more likely that the offshore wind energy potential is insufficient to meet the demand. The government envisions five applications for hydrogen, namely to be used as feedstock for the process industry, to generate high temperature heat, as energy storage for renewables (balancing the grid), as a transport fuel, and in the built environment. The results indicate that the demand of these five applications is unlikely to be met completely with offshore wind green hydrogen. However, the large majority of the hydrogen demand is dedicated to be used as a feedstock for the process industry. If this feedstock were to be from another source, meeting the demand of the remaining hydrogen applications with offshore wind is more realistic. Consequently, a main take-away is that the creation of a wind and solar based electricity grid with green hydrogen as a balancing agent is feasible. The results of this research gave rise to several recommendations. Firstly, renewable energy generation should be maximized using the full scope of different available techniques (not only focusing on offshore wind). Second, different decarbonization pathways other than offshore wind green hydrogen should be explored to account for process industry feedstocks. Third, the government should work closely together with other North Sea-bordering countries in order to make the best use of the available space. Fourth and final, efforts should be steered towards maximizing the wind energy potential of the Dutch North Sea, which is ideally suited for wind energy generation and should therefore be used in the best way possible.