Analysis of Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Based on Ice Core Data

Abstract: It is widely considered that the raise of carbon dioxide is a main causeof global warming, but nature scientific has not provided us the completeand precise causes of this phenomenon. We would like to analyze whetherthere exists long-term causality between temperature and carbon dioxidewith the Vostok Ice-Core data from 400,000 years ago to 6,000 years ago.According to the properties of data, intervention analysis and time seriesanalysis with exponential time trend are applied as the methods of univariateanalysis, so that we can fit the deterministic time trends of data,and we select the time series model with exponential time trend as the finalmodel of univariate analysis by comparison. With the idea of Perron in1989, we consider determining the structural break points based on the natureof data, in order to find the best model. Then using a bivariate systemto analyze both temperature and carbon dioxide simultaneously will bereasonable, and the Granger-Causality test is an appropriate one to judgethe forecasting relation between these two series. Finally, the null hypothesisof the test, that carbon dioxide does not Granger-cause temperature,should be rejected, and this is a one way relation. Thus, this article canprovide strong empirical evidence to show that carbon dioxide causes thechange of temperature.