One-Sided Violence and External Support : The effects of government one-sided violence on external state support provision

Abstract: Previous research on external state support provision has largely focused on the causes of said support, and the effects of external support on conflict dynamics. Limited knowledge exists on the causes of support termination, despite the widely established detrimental effects of external support on conflict duration and intensity. Conducting the first large-N study on rebel support termination, Karlén (2019) makes a first significant contribution to the field, exploring different factors causing support withdrawal. This thesis aims at contributing to the field by exploring one of many possible causes for state support withdrawal; namely state perpetrated one-sided violence. Based on a theoretical framework drawing on theories of cost-benefit analyses and reputation costs, the thesis holds that one-sided violence perpetrated by a government receiving external support in an intrastate armed conflict will increase the probability of the external actor withdrawing support. The conducted logistic regression finds support for the posed hypothesis. Notably, the results indicate that democratic governments are less likely to withdraw support as one-sided violence increases than are more autocratic governments, constituting an interesting avenue for further research.