Workers, Mothers: Women! : The correlation between fertility and female employment in Italy

Abstract: This study focuses on the difference between northern and southern Italy concering the correlation between total fertility rate (TFR) and female employment rate (FER) using pronvicial-level data. Theories demonstrate that the correlation can either be negative or positive, although it has been showed in the past decades that this correlation between nations is positive throughout the developed countries. This phenomenon has been descripted by van de Kaa (2002) and Lesthaeghe (2010) as the second demographic transition. With regards of Italy, previous studies focusing on the country’s 20 regions have also found a positive correlation (Rondinelli and Zizza 2010). Furthermore, the Italian context is explained with special regards towards the deep cultural and socio-economical differences between northern and southern Italy. The divide is confirmed by statistical data. Furthermore, a regression analysis controls the correlation between TFR and FER against relevant variables and finds surprisingly a positive correlation in the north and a negative correlation in the south, where a fertility postponement mechanism is present. Conservative gender roles and economic underdevelopment can be seen as the cause of this divide, although there are signs of change.