The Ebb and Flow of Sino-North Korean Relations: A Prospect Theory Analysis of Chinese Behavior Towards North Korea During the Years of 2006-2017

Abstract: This thesis has sought to understand what has governed China’s behavior towards North Korea along with what keeps China aligned with North Korea, how the US is influencing Sino-North Korean relations and if China has been increasingly critical of North Korea in the light of its nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016, 2017, the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. A theoretical framework based on structural realism and prospect theory was built and merged with a quantitative content analysis approach. A hypothesis was formed stating that depending on the likelihood of US military intervention China would act more or less risk averse or acceptant towards North Korea. The hypothesis was confirmed. The thesis found that the likelihood of US intervention has a strong impact on Chinese behavior towards North Korea. It also finds that structural realism and prospect theory satisfactorily explains why China keeps alignment with North Korea, how the US is influencing Sino-North Korean relations and that China’s behavior has not necessarily been increasingly critical of North Korea.