Logistics in a Changing Retail Landscape : How Will Warehouses and Logistics Real Estate Evolve With the Transformation of Retail?

Abstract: The Swedish retail sector is experiencing a structural shift, where the e-commerce sector isgrowing steadily each year. As of 2017, e-commerce had seen an average annual growth rateof 14% over the past decade. Currently, e-commerce corresponds to 8.7% of the total retailsector. As the e-commerce sector is growing, so are the requirements for the underlyinglogistics operations. Larger trade volumes implicate a greater need of warehouses andlogistics real estate.The purpose of this master thesis is to investigate how the changing retail landscape will affectdemand for logistics real estate in Sweden for the coming decade. The study is based on amixed-method research design, combining a data analysis on the current market situationwith scenario-based interviews with 14 professionals about future market expectations. Thisthesis is structured around the DAS-framework, a strategy model developed at the Real Estateand Housing department at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.From observations, the conclusion is that the logistics real estate stock in Sweden needs to becomplemented by several, smaller distribution terminals located in close vicinity to the citycores. This in order to address the last-mile issue from the continued development of ecommercein areas with dense population.