Forecast Modelling of Future Events that Affect the Repayment Capacity of Mortgages

Abstract: The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority introduced new guidelines and regulations on March 1, 2019. These regulations induced Swedish banks and other creditors to consider future events as a mean to improve their ability to determine the risk of debtors. A forecast generator was created as a tool to accomplish this. The constraints of this thesis limited the forecast generator to mortgages with four parameters: loss of income, pension, foreign currency and depreciation. The forecast generator was created by combining components of Vitec Capitex's existing mortgage calculator as well as by adding new components. The new components were utilized in advancing loans and budgets in time, as well as calculating a suitable income insurance in the case of a loss of income. Furthermore, the forecast generator could approximate the pension a debtor would receive when retired. The forecast generator could calculate the economic situation of debtors after a future event took place such as a loss of income or an early or late retirement. A suitable income insurance would prevent a debtor from insolvency in the case of an income loss.