Forecasting the Temperatures of theWinter 2022/2023 using SARIMA Models

Abstract: In this paper the possibility and accuracy of forecasting weekly temperatures for one season,the winter of 2022/2023 is explored. By comparing the forecasted values with normal temper-atures a prediction of the severity of the coming winter can be attained. A weighted forecastthat tries to unify forecasted temperature and its impact on energy consumption in Sweden isalso formed. Relatively accurate forecasts for eight different locations in Sweden are successfullyproduced, albeit with significant variance.