Particle-based Stochastic Volatility in Mean model

University essay from KTH/Matematisk statistik

Abstract: This thesis present a Stochastic Volatility in Mean (SVM) model which is estimated using sequential Monte Carlo methods. The SVM model was first introduced by Koopman and provides an opportunity to study the intertemporal relationship between stock returns and their volatility through inclusion of volatility itself as an explanatory variable in the mean-equation. Using sequential Monte Carlo methods allows us to consider a non-linear estimation procedure at cost of introducing extra computational complexity. The recently developed PaRIS-algorithm, introduced by Olsson and Westerborn, drastically decrease the computational complexity of smoothing relative to previous algorithms and allows for efficient estimation of parameters. The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the volatility feedback effect, i.e. the relation between expected return and unexpected volatility in an empirical study. The results shows that unanticipated shocks to the return process do not explain expected returns.

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