Dr. Polopoly - IntelligentSystem Monitoring : An Experimental and Comparative Study ofMultilayer Perceptrons and Random Forests ForError Diagnosis In A Network of Servers

University essay from KTH/Skolan för datavetenskap och kommunikation (CSC)

Abstract: This thesis explores the potential of using machine learning to superviseand diagnose a computer system by comparing how Multilayer Perceptron(MLP) and Random Forest (RF) perform at this task in a controlledenvironment. The base of comparison is primarily how accurate theyare in their predictions, but some thought is given to how cost effectivethey are regarding time. The specific system used is a content management system (CMS)called Polopoly. The thesis details how training samples were collectedby inserting Java proxys into the Polopoly system in order to time theinter-server method calls. Errors in the system were simulated by limitingindividual server’s bandwith, and a normal use case was simulatedthrough the use of a tool called Grinder. The thesis then delves into the setup of the two algorithms andhow the parameters were decided upon, before comparing their finalimplementations based on their accuracy. The accuracy is noted to bepoor, with both being correct roughly 20% of the time, but discussesif there could still be a use case for the algorithms with this level ofaccuracy. Finally, the thesis concludes that there is no significant difference(p 0.05) in the MLP and RF accuracies, and in the end suggeststhat future work should focus either on comparing the algorithms or ontrying to improve the diagnosing of errors in Polopoly.

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