Dependence Structures between Commodity Futures and Corresponding Producer Indices across Varying Market Conditions : A cross-quantilogram approach

University essay from Linköpings universitet/Nationalekonomi; Linköpings universitet/Nationalekonomi

Abstract: This thesis examines the dependence structures between commodity futures and corresponding commodity producer equity indices in bearish, bullish and normal market conditions. We study commodity futures and producer indices in the energy, precious metals, gold and agriculture commodity markets using daily return data that ranges from 16 December 2005 to 28 June 2019. We employ the cross-quantilogram approach developed by Han et al. (2016) to examine dependence structures in the full quantile range, which represents different market states. Furthermore, we control for different lag structures, uncertainties and time-varying dependence structures. From our results we conclude the following: 1) There are time-varying asymmetric and symmetric dependencies in different commodity markets. There is asymmetric dependence between commodity futures and producer indices in the precious metals, gold and agricultural markets. In the oil market, the relationship is symmetrical. No relationship is found in the natural gas market. 2) Heterogenous dependence structures are identified in the gold, precious metals and agricultural commodity markets. The oil market uncovers homogenous dependence structures. 3) The observed spillover in all markets occur in the very short run, at one day, and dissipates after a week and additionally after a month. Our results provide new information regarding commodity diversification attributes which can be useful to investors. Our results also provide important policy implications: Since volatility spillovers between commodity futures and producer indices may deter investors from including commodities in their portfolios, as they might lose their diversifier qualities, it is important to enforce policies that will prevent the spillovers between the assets. Further, regulations of the commodity futures markets could be an alternative to reduce the spillovers.

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