Time series analysis of ground frost conditionsat Abisko, sub-Arctic Sweden, 1985-2010

Abstract: Observed climatic change may result in modification of the ground thermal regime.The causes of shallow ground temperature variability, however, are not well documented.This thesis reports ground temperatures from Absiko Scientific Research Station, measured ata site currently not underlain by permafrost to illustrate the response of shallow groundtemperatures to changes in climatic parameters. Both air temperature and precipitationincreased at Abisko from 1985-2010. The strongest increase in air temperature occurred inwinter, whereas the precipitation increased mainly during the summer months. There was asignificant trend towards later onset of permanent snow cover, as well as a steadily earlierdisappearance of permanent snow cover in spring, resulting in reduced snow cover duration.Also the snow thickness decreased at Abisko during the study period. The ground experiencedapproximately five months of frost at 5 and 20 cm depth and approx. four, respectively two,months at 50 and 100 cm depth. Annual ground temperatures were found to be increasingfrom 1985-2010 with approx. 0.31 °C, 0.64 °C, 0.82 °C and 0.94 °C at 5, 20, 50, respectively100 cm depth from the surface. The duration and intensity of the seasonal frost cycles weredecreasing, which would reflect the increasing ground temperatures. Changes in short-termfrost cycles were not found to be significant. The changes in mean annual and winter groundtemperature were significantly correlated to the changes in mean annual and winter airtemperature, but surprisingly not to the changes in snow cover. However, seasonally theincreasing trend of ground temperatures was found in autumn and winter, whereas thesummer ground temperatures were decreasing. The cooling of ground temperature in summerat increasing air temperatures may be explained by increased precipitation totals and henceincreased soil moisture due to the so called soil-moisture feedback. From this fact, it can bededuced that the changes in air temperature alone cannot explain all variances in groundtemperatures. However, the results of the study may suggest that in sub-Arctic Swedenchanges in air temperatures may be used as indicator for changes in shallow groundtemperatures.