Predictions of train delays using machine learning

Abstract: Train delays occur on a daily basis in the commuter rail of Stockholm. This means that the travellers might become delayed themselves for their particular destination. To find the most accurate method for predicting train delays, the machine learning methods decision tree with and without AdaBoost and neural network were compared with different settings. Neural network achieved the best result when used with 3 layers and 22 neurons in each layer. Its delay predictions had an average error of 122 seconds, compared to the actual delay. It might therefore be the best method for predicting train delays. However the study was very limited in time and more train departure data would need to be collected.