The Rise or Fall of South Africa : Post-Apartheid Conflict Transformation

Abstract: Years of political and economic mismanagement have brought South Africa to a critical turning point. After the demise of Apartheid and already during the transition to democracy, far-reaching efforts have been undertaken to achieve reconciliation, socioeconomic equality, and build sustainable peace in the county. However, the structural patterns of segregationist ideologies have only changed marginally, leading to a status in which the legacy of Apartheid determines South Africa’s future. Depending on the psychodynamic choice of dealing with the past traumata, as well as the government’s ideological tendency, there are different future scenarios. In this thesis, the conflict transformation policies in the fields of security, social and economic well-being, justice and reconciliation, and governance and participation are evaluated through an input-output analysis, to answer to which extent these measures are effective or not. This is done by considering transnational processes and developments, objectives in past and current conflicts, as well as by working out possible future scenarios. The result of the evaluation is that, with minor exceptions, the current approaches to conflict transformation are not effective, and different measures must be taken urgently to avert South Africa’s downfall.