Return to what? : A quantitative analysis of how structural factors in countries of origin impact the probability of complying with a return decision among rejected asylum seekers in Sweden

Abstract: Return migration has risen on the political agenda within the EU and in Sweden, and large efforts have been made to increase ‘voluntary returns’ (i.e., compliance with return decisions) among rejected asylum seekers. However, research on the determinants of compliance with a return decision is lagging behind. Little attention has been paid to the impact of structural factors in countries of origin, and there is a lack of quantitative studies from Sweden. This study is (to my knowledge), the first attempt to quantitively analyze the determinants of complying with a return decision among rejected asylum seekers in Sweden. This study explores the impact of structural factors in countries of origin on the probability of complying with a return decision among rejected asylum seekers in Sweden between 2006–2015. Using push and pull theories, two hypotheses are developed and tested: that rejected asylum seekers are more likely to comply with a return decision when the security situation, as well as living standards, in their country of origin improve. The quantitative analysis draws on a unique dataset of individual return decisions from the Swedish Migration Agency. The results suggest that rejected asylum seekers are more likely to comply with a return decision when the security situation in their country of origin improves. The results suggest the opposite relationship with improved living standards, which is intuitively and theoretically difficult to make sense of and needs further investigation in future research. By studying the impact of political and economic factors, this thesis contributes with a Global Political Economy perspective on return migration. In addition, the results contribute to the international migration literature as well as the literature on ‘migration control’. Lastly, the results contribute to the political discussion on ‘voluntary return’ in Sweden and the EU, implying that structural factors in countries of origin cannot be ignored in policymaking.