Can China Successfully leapfrog into Electrical Vehicle Dominance

Abstract: The concept of the leapfrog, whereby developing economies ‘jump’ directly to adopting the advanced economy technologies without having to follow the development paths of their predecessors, is a very appealing theory. A leapfrog attempt is visible in the Chinese governments ambitions to react to the recent change of focus of the global auto industry to developing more sustainable vehicles to address the growing global environmental challenges. From having a very small automotive industry at the end of 1970 producing vehicles of poor quality for the domestic market, to being the largest producer of vehicles in the world from 2009, China’s track record is phenomenal, but such a ‘leap’ could be overly ambitious and unfeasible. This essay addresses the question of whether China can achieve a technological leapfrog into electric vehicle dominance. By reviewing the leapfrog concept and using empirical studies and data to assess whether the necessary conditions of a technological leapfrog are present in China, I can assess the likelihood that they will be able to achieve the national policy. It is concluded that the probability that China can achieve a technological leapfrog to electric vehicle dominance is very small.