Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Future DOC Export to Lake Mälaren Using a Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) Model

Abstract: Browning of boreal freshwaters due to an increased export of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has been observed for some decennia. Drivers include recovery from acid deposition and changing climate and land cover. Lake Mälaren provides the Swedish capital Stockholm with drinking water and an increased future browning of the lake could demand more treatment to produce acceptable drinking water. Knowledge of what can be expected in a changing climate is therefore needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate; (1) The performance of the GWLF model simulations of hydrology and DOC export for 13 catchments draining into the Galten and Ekoln basins in lake Mälaren; (2) How simulated DOC export from the 13 catchments would change in response to climate scenarios RCP2.6, 6.0 and 8.5; and (3) If climate change impact on DOC export to lake Mälaren potentially will demand more treatment of the lake water in the future to produce acceptable drinking water to the Stockholm area. All data used were open access and include temperature, precipitation, discharge, total organic carbon (TOC) and water colour, land cover and soil types. In comparison to other studies, good model performance was found when simulating daily streamflow, baseflow, surface runoff, daily DOC loads and monthly DOC loads. Model simulations of DOC concentrations were less certain, but for some catchments similar results were obtained as in other studies. Increased air temperature resulted in higher simulated soil temperatures and a longer growing season. An increase in both annual precipitation and evapotranspiration resulted in only slight increase in simulated annual streamflow. There were, however, large seasonal impacts on streamflow with higher winter flows and lower spring flood. Annual DOC loads increased, mainly due to increased DOC concentrations over the whole year, as the annual streamflow did not change greatly. Increased winter streamflow and DOC concentrations resulted in large increases in DOC loads. The impact was larger for the higher emission scenarios. DOC loading to Galten and Ekoln increased in all future scenarios during winter, with a likely impact on DOC concentrations in the eastern basins as well. Increased loads to Ekoln are likely to impact the drinking water production of Stockholm more direct than the increases in Galten, as the Ekoln water has a shorter transit time to the drinking water withdrawals. The GWLF model shows much promise in predicting DOC concentrations and loads to lake Mälaren in a changing climate. To estimate the effects of DOC export to lake Mälaren on future drinking water production, further work also needs to be done on in-lake transport and processes.