Beyond Climate Finance Pledges: A Critical Exploration of Adaptation Finance Allocation and Access to Sudan

Abstract: Climate adaptation finance is crucial, particularly for the most vulnerable countries, as these countries often face the worst impacts and are the least capable of adapting. While adaptation finance mobilization has increased over the last years, little has actually been channelled to the most vulnerable countries, with no concrete evidence of the prioritization of the most vulnerable countries in allocation. The main objective of this study is to contribute to the understanding of adaptation finance allocation and trace the manifestations of allocation rationales on access procedures. An explorative case study research design was adopted to realize this objective, with qualitative data triangulated with semi-structured interviews and document review. The study focused on Sudan as a case of one of the most vulnerable countries and analyzed the rationales for adaptation finance allocation to Sudan from four different bilateral and multilateral sources, including the UK, Sweden, Japan, and GEF. Much emphasis has been placed on perspectives; both recipient and donor perspectives were equally incorporated when relevant. Through thematic analysis, the results of this study yielded three main findings. First, it confirmed that vulnerability is not a strong proxy for allocation; however, it is viewed as a prerequisite that would only support the requests of recipient countries. Second, an additional supplementary model for adaptation finance allocation has been suggested in response to the surfacing of concerns from donors in relation to climate-induced migration and the potential increase in humanitarian needs as a result of climate change. Third, it became evident that there is a mix of converging factors and rationales shaping decisions underlying adaptation finance allocations rather than a singular motive or factor that pushes forward or restricts decisions. Looking into the future, the findings of this study underline the need for both donors and recipients to rethink adaptation finance beyond traditional development finance while also considering the root causes that generate, reproduce, and amplify vulnerability. It also urges the planning of strategies that can accommodate the political unrest in the short term because climate change does not await political rest. Further, particular to recipients, the findings suggest a dire need to claim or reclaim country ownership by being proactive and purposeful in setting and mainstreaming ownership across the different levels. Finally, future research is suggested for building on the proposed analytical framework for the manifestations of allocation rationales.