Building a Railway to Europe. Consequences of Chinese Investment to Serbia’s EU-Association Process.

Abstract: The issue addressed in this study is the consequences of China’s investments in Serbia. The purpose of this topic is to examine the development of Serbia’s alignment to the European Union (EU) association reforms. The theoretical framework comes from the diffusion and the dependency theory, which both build on previous research. The data is gathered primarily through official documents, news articles and interviews. High profile Chinese projects in Serbia were analysed through a process-tracing approach and are related to changes in Serbia’s EU reform process. The EU alignment is analysed along with three indicators from the theory; public procedures and administration, the rule of law and foreign policy. The practical implications of the results are a deepening understanding China’s influence in Europe, particularly the EU-association process. Here Serbia is argued to be a “least-likely” case of the Western Balkan for Chinese influence, due to the country’s prominent position in the EU-association negotiations. From the data there is an implied correlation between stagnation in Serbia’s reform willingness and China’s increased investments. Here China’s values differ from the EU’s, which hint to a possible causation between the stagnation and investments, as suggested by the theories.