Assessing vulnerability to sea level rise in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: The study aims to assess vulnerability to sea level rise of the municipal population from the coastal region of the state of São Paulo. This vulnerability assessment focus on degrees of vulnerability and what are the main factors that affect vulnerability to sea level rise in the municipalities. The study has included indicators of vulnerability to sea level rise which were represented through vulnerability mapping reflecting the degrees of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, exposure and total vulnerability of the municipalities. The results have shown that São Vicente, São Sebastião, Praia Grande, Santos and Guarujá were classified as highly vulnerable to sea level rise and Santos as the most vulnerable municipality. The assessment indicated that approximately 1 million inhabitants of the coastal zone of São Paulo could be affected by a rise of up to 1 meter in the sea level in one generation time, around 100 years. Social factors are among the main factors that affect vulnerability, which are especially related to urban infrastructure; however biophysical factors, particularly linked to erosion and inundation are significant factors to vulnerability to sea level rise in the municipalities likewise, economic factors, as the most vulnerable municipalities concentrate industries with high polluting potential. The identified main factors that affect coastal vulnerability should be integrated in policy considerations that should also focus on long term urban management strategies.