Lönsamheten i vindkraft : en studie om den förväntade lönsamheten i landsbaserad vindkraft

University essay from SLU/Dept. of Economics

Abstract: This thesis analyzes the expected profitability in land based wind power plants. The expected profitability is calculated on the basis of a wind power project in Vartofta, Falköping. The information required to calculate the expected outcome is then concentrated to this project, which is in this thesis called project Näs. In project Näs they plan to build three wind power plants, with each an effect of 2 MWh. These wind power plants are very capital intensive investments with a long and uncertain payback time. This is the case of all wind power investments, which creates an essential need for further analysis in the expected profitability of land based wind power plants. The main purpose of the thesis is to calculate the expected profitability in land based wind power investments. Further the purpose is to develop a model which easily can calculate the expected profitability of a wind power plant investment. This model is applicable to all land based wind power plant investments. This is possible through a study of an present project Uncertainty is been taken into consideration by using experts and their personal expectations in the uncertain variables of the investment calculation sheet. The personal expectations are created as probability distributions. The uncertainty is therefore observed in probability distributions, reflecting the uncertain variables expected values. The uncertain variables in this thesis are electricity price year 2008, electricity price 2017, electricity price year 2023, electricity price 2027, electricity connection cost and the variation of the wind. To calculate the expected net present value I have chosen to apply the Monte Carlo simulation technique. In the Monte Carlo technique the input variables are able to vary in consideration to the probability distributions. The thesis states that investment in wind power is actually profitable as long as the expected yield on the investment lays between six and seven percent. This is the case even when there are large costs involved in such investment. These large are expected to get smaller since the development of wind power otherwise will suffer. The result also shows which variables that has the biggest effect on the net present value of the investment. The variables that has the biggest effect on the investment is electricity price 2008 and the electricity price 2017.

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