The Key Drivers of CO2 Emissions of North America, Western Europe, China, and India, 1870-2019

Abstract: North America, Western Europe, China, and India are today the greatest emitters of carbon dioxide. This research aims to compare the development of North America and Western Europe with the Chinese and Indian ones. It is a comparison of the key factors that affects the emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels. The key factors are the ones proposed by the Kaya identity, a particular type of decomposition analysis. These are: demographic change, economic growth, energy intensity, and carbon intensity. The main results of this thesis reveal that the economic growth of China has been the key driver of its carbon emissions after 2001. The Chinese values are enormously higher compared with the other zones. In addition, improvement in energy intensity in developed areas has significantly decreased carbon emissions after 1973. Also in China energy intensity has been a driver of carbon emissions reduction after 2008. The Indian case is not comparable with the Chinese one since the impact that the key drivers had on its carbon emissions is relatively marginal. Lastly, the shift from coal to other fuels has greatly contributed to carbon emissions reductions in North America and Western Europe since 1870. In China, this transition has started to contribute since 2008.