Impact of Extreme Scenarios on the European Industry in 2050 : Model Expansion and Computation of a High Efficiency Scenario for Germany and its Electrical Neighbors

Abstract: Decarbonizing the European industry sector is a prerequisite for reaching the ‘well below’ 2 °C climate target adopted in the Paris agreement. The objective of this master thesis is to model a European energy efficiency scenario (2020 – 2050), using the Sector Model of the Industry (SmInd). This reference scenario builds the basis for comparison with extreme scenarios. Additionally, an extreme electrification scenario is assessed qualitatively for its prospective implementation into the model. SmInd Europe is obtained by adapting and expanding a German version of SmInd. The model is based on sub sector specific input data such as energy consumption and load profiles, as well as energy carrier specific data considering emission factors and energy carrier prices. The input data requires different assumptions, to account for 13 energy carriers, 11 applications, 22 processes, 13 sub sectors and 15 countries. Computing the country specific industry structure and the reference scenario reveals an overall reduction in energy consumption, as well as a reduction in CO2 emissions of e.g. 44 %, 22 % and 20 % in Germany, France and Sweden, respectively. Benchmarking the reference scenario with other country specific studies shows that the assumptions taken are a reasonable first approach for modelling an ambitious energy efficiency scenario in the European industry sector. The assessment of the heterogeneous industry structure reveals that the implementation of extreme scenarios needs a country specific approach, to account for a varying degree of decarbonization progress in the different sub sectors and countries.