Exploring the interactions between local public opinion, the media, and foreign policy toward Chinese investments in Ecuador

Abstract: In an increasingly polarizing world, the debate on the importance of public opinion in shaping foreign policy decisions has been raging over. This study explores the interactions between Chinese investment and credit and public opinion about China in Ecuador from 2012 to 2021 through two classical international relations theories: the realist and liberal hypotheses. Ecuador was selected as a case study because it is among the four Latin American countries that have received the most significant amounts of Chinese loans in the 21st century. We use a mixed methods approach combining a time series regression model to explore the evolution of Ecuadorian public opinion, as well as media content analysis of mainstream Ecuadorian news on Chinese investments. To run the regression model, we draw upon Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) survey waves. LAPOP is a unique survey exploring public opinion on foreign policy in Latin America in general and in Ecuador in particular. The media content analysis was based on top three newspapers in Ecuador by circulation: El Comercio, El Telégrafo, and El Universo. Research findings suggest that a realist approach contributes more to understanding attitudes of Ecuador’s foreign policymakers regarding Chinese investments over the years. In effect, Ecuadorian foreign policymakers seemingly ignore local public opinion when defining the country’s relations with China. The realist perspective allows to interpret the untangling between public opinion and Ecuadorian foreign policy because of the volatility of Ecuadorian public opinion about China, as evidenced by LAPOP surveys. Another explaining factor is the limited influence of Ecuadorian citizens living in provinces with a strong Chinese economic presence. Finally, the combined results of our newspaper content analysis and our regression study demonstrate that despite being systematically exposed to mainstream news which are predominantly negative regarding Chinese finance in Ecuador, a high proportion of Ecuadorian newspaper readers maintain a positive opinion about China. Further research on Chinese public diplomacy efforts in the country is needed to fully disaggregate the impact of Chinese loans and investments on public opinion about China in Ecuador. This could provide timely information about the complex dynamics of public perceptions and foreign relations in a moment where political and economic hegemonies are being rapidly reshaped.