Regional Security in the Persion Gulf
Abstract: Using the theoretical instruments given in Buzan and Weavers Regional Security Complex Theory, this thesis provides an updated analysis of the security dynamics in the Persian Gulf, a sub-complex in the Middle Eastern Regional Security Complex (MERSC). The method used was to compare the authors’ analysis of the core characteristics of the MERSC in general, and the Gulf in particular as perceived 2002 , with the changes in the following decade. The aim is to see if preconditions for regional security is changing, and to provide an indication of in what direction security is unfolding. The findings indicate that many relational patterns within the Middle East at large remain. Since 2002, the basis for amity and enmity in relations still prevail, but states transforming at the domestic level during the Arab together with the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, implicates changes in polarity. The outcome is a possible breakup of the MERSC Complex into smaller RSCs. Within the Gulf Sub-complex, polarity may change from multipolar to bipolar, with Iran and the GCC countries balancing off each other in the Persian Gulf. External transformation is not likely in the short term, as interregional dynamics are increasing, but still are sparse.
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