Scenario Development of Waste Import to Sweden - On behalf of the Port of Gothenburg

Abstract: This report deals with surrounding conditions for the relatively new import flow of combustible waste to Sweden. In recent years transboundary transportation of waste has increased considerably, which is mainly driven by EU regulations regarding landfill minimization. Other driving forces of this flow have been the overcapacity at Swedish incinerators, the available waste treatment techniques and the increased trading interest for this commodity. However, the importation and particularly the flows that demand maritime transportation constitute a complex logistic chain with practical and economic constraints. There is still no standardized transportation solution for this cargo and actors involved are investigating if it has a future potential for deliberation of possible investments in logistics. The study was commissioned by the Port of Gothenburg with the purpose of mapping the current flow and identifying driving forces and certain/uncertain influencing factors for these import volumes. The identified factors have been divided under the sections regulations, market and capacity development, logistics and environment. Further, in order to provide a basis for possible investments, trends and factors are processed in a so-called scenario planning model. The model used for scenario development in this research is a case adapted version inspired by previously published models.