Is Chernobyl radiation the main cause of cancer deaths? - The research on cancer mortality before and after 1986

Abstract: The Chernobyl catastrophe is still referred to as the biggest radioactivity fallout problem in the history of the world. The cloud that was released from the broken reactor travelled across larger parts of the European continent and the after-effects of the radiation are said to be felt and faced throughout the impacted regions up to this day – and that this process is far from over. This thesis aims at examining the size as well as the significance of the effects of cancer-related mortality on people after the catastrophe in 1986 compared to the cancer deaths that occurred before the Chernobyl accident. The time period that is used in this paper spans from 1966 up to 2005, which equals to twenty years before and twenty years after the reactor explosion. Within this period two countries are examined. Poland is used as the treatment group as that country is located very close to the danger zone, whereas Spain is used as a control group because it is located outside of the impacted area. Two cancer types are examined within both of these countries. Lung cancer is examined as the one caused by radiation fallout, while stomach cancer is used as the one with the development not impacted by the radioactive particles. Moreover, a number of other factors, besides radiation, is used to statistically establish whether or not the radiation is the sole and significant determinant of cancer. These are: smoking habits, obesity and air pollution. The results show that the Chernobyl’s radiation still affects lung cancer mortality of people in Poland, but to a much lesser degree than the polluted air or even heavy smoking. Stomach cancer in Poland is caused by a combination of all of the modelled variables. Spanish lung cancer mortality is also affected by heavy smoking and air pollution, whereas stomach cancer deaths in this country are caused mainly by excessive nicotine intake.